Do Management Interventions Last? Evidence from India -- by Nicholas Bloom,...
Beginning in 2008, we ran a randomized controlled trial that changed management practices in a set of Indian weaving firms (Bloom et al. 2013). In 2017 we revisited the plants and found three main...
View ArticleDo CCTs Improve Employment and Earnings in the Very Long-Term? Evidence from...
We assess long-term impacts of the Mexican conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on youth employment and earnings. We rely on the original random assignment into early and late treatment localities,...
View ArticleLongevity, Education, and Income: How Large is the Triangle? -- by Hoyt Bleakley
While health affects economic development and wellbeing through a variety of pathways, one commonly suggested mechanism is a "horizon" channel in which increased longevity induces additional education....
View ArticleWhat do we know about the effects of Austerity? -- by Alberto F. Alesina,...
This paper summarizes the results of a large recent literature on multi year fiscal plans for deficit reduction (austerity). The key results are that deficit reduction policies based upon spending cuts...
View ArticleAI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective -- by Manuel Trajtenberg
History suggests that dismal prophecies regarding the impact of great technological advances rarely come to pass. Yet, as many occupations will indeed vanish with the advent of AI as the new General...
View ArticleUnconventional Fiscal Policy -- by Francesco D'Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Michael...
Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time...
View ArticlePrediction, Judgment and Complexity -- by Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans,...
We interpret recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) as improvements in prediction technology. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in...
View ArticleMarket Structure in Bitcoin Mining -- by June Ma, Joshua S. Gans, Rabee Tourky
We analyze the Bitcoin protocol for electronic peer-to-peer payments and the operations that support the "blockchain" that underpins it. It is shown that that protocol maps formally into a dynamic game...
View ArticleFinancial Constraints, Institutions, and Foreign Ownership -- by Ron Alquist,...
This paper examines how external finance dependence, financial development, and institutions influence brownfield foreign direct investment (FDI). We develop a model of cross-border acquisitions in...
View ArticleHigh-Priced Drugs in Medicare Part D: Diagnosis and Potential Prescription --...
Drug pricing in the U.S. is a persistently vexing policy problem. While there is agreement among many policy analysts that supra competitive prices are necessary to promote innovation; significant...
View ArticleNotice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking -- by...
One source of uncertainty in the patent system relates to the difficulty in identifying products that are protected with a patent. This paper studies the adoption by U.S. patentees of "virtual patent...
View ArticleInternational Capital Flow Pressures -- by Linda S. Goldberg, Signe Krogstrup
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows...
View ArticleShift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration -- by David A. Jaeger,...
A large literature exploits geographic variation in the concentration of immigrants to identify their impact on a variety of outcomes. To address the endogeneity of immigrants' location choices, the...
View ArticleHuman Judgment and AI Pricing -- by Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi...
Recent artificial intelligence advances can be seen as improvements in prediction. We examine how such predictions should be priced. We model two inputs into decisions: a prediction of the state and...
View ArticleIsrael's Immigration Story: Winners and Losers -- by Assaf Razin
The exodus of Soviet Jews to Israel in the 1990s was a unique event. The immigration wave was distinctive for its large high skilled cohort, and its quick integration into the domestic labor market....
View ArticleHow Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Can Impact Market Design --...
In complex environments, it is challenging to learn enough about the underlying characteristics of transactions so as to design the best institutions to efficiently generate gains from trade. In recent...
View ArticleSocial Transmission Bias and Investor Behavior -- by Bing Han, David...
We offer a new social approach to investment decision-making and asset prices. In our model, senders' propensity to discuss their strategies' returns, and receivers' propensity to be converted, are...
View ArticleThe Right Type of Legislator: A Theory of Taxation and Representation -- by...
We develop a theory of taxation and the distribution of government spending in a citizen-candidate model of legislatures. Individuals are heterogeneous in two dimensions: productive ability in the...
View ArticleDoes E-Cigarette Advertising Encourage Adult Smokers to Quit? -- by Dhaval M....
Only recently introduced into the U.S. market, e-cigarettes have been aggressively promoted, and use is increasing rapidly among both adults and youths. At the heart of the regulatory debate are...
View ArticleThe Effects of Computers and Acquired Skills on Earnings, Employment and...
This paper provides the first evidence on the earnings, employment and college enrollment effects of computers and acquired skills from a randomized controlled trial providing computers to entering...
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